DYNAMICS AND STRUCTURAL DIVERSIFICATION OF TRADE RELATIONS BETWEEN UZBEKISTAN AND CHINA: TRENDS, ASYMMETRIES, AND FUTURE PROSPECTS

Abstract

This study examines the bilateral trade dynamics and economic cooperation between the Republic of Uzbekistan and the People's Republic of China over the period 2022–2025. China has consolidated its position as Uzbekistan’s leading foreign trade partner, accounting for over 21% of the country’s total foreign trade volume. Utilizing empirical datasets from the Statistics Agency under the President of Uzbekistan, the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade (MIIT), and UN COMTRADE, this paper analyzes the trade balance deficit and the structural asymmetry between Chinese capital imports (industrial machinery, electric vehicles, and green technologies) and Uzbek exports (copper cathodes, natural gas, textiles, and agricultural products). The strategic role of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and the China–Kyrgyzstan–Uzbekistan (CKU) transport corridor are evaluated. Actionable recommendations are offered to enhance Uzbekistan's export diversification, value-added processing, and bilateral market integration.